Austin, Dripping Springs & Hill Country Market Update

OCT 2026

The short version: buyers have leverage, sellers need a strategy — and it varies a LOT by zip code. Here's what the data is telling us right now across the Austin metro and Dripping Springs.




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Austin Metro Snapshot

~$450K

Median Sold Price

Down 5–7% year-over-year across the metro

3.2:1

Seller-to-Buyer Ratio

One of the most buyer-heavy ratios in the country

47%

Listings with Price Cuts

Nearly half of all active listings have taken at least one reduction

19%

Absorption Rate

Well below the ~31% historical norm — homes moving slower than usual

Absorption Rate: Below Historical Norm

What the Numbers Tell Us

The Austin metro is operating well below its historical pace. At a 19% absorption rate versus the 31% norm, homes are sitting longer and buyers are gaining the upper hand.

Nearly half of all active listings have already taken at least one price cut — a clear signal that initial pricing is frequently missing the mark in today's market.

New Construction vs. Resale: The Competitive Shift

Why New Construction Is Winning

Builder incentives are reshaping the competitive landscape in ways resale sellers simply can't match without aggressive pricing strategy.

Rate Buydowns

Builders are buying down mortgage rates by 1–2 points, dramatically lowering monthly payments

Closing Cost Credits

Thousands in credits that resale sellers struggle to match without cutting into equity

Design Upgrades

Move-in ready finishes at no extra cost — a powerful draw for today's buyers

Dripping Springs (78620) — A Different Animal

78620 is NOT moving in lockstep with the rest of Austin. Sellers here need to understand the unique dynamics at play in this market.

~$677K

Average home value in 78620 — down ~2.5% YoY, with homes taking ~94 days to go pending

~$763K

Citywide Dripping Springs average — down nearly 10% YoY, a steeper decline than the zip code average

63%

Of active listings have had a price reduction — up 24 points from last year

~8,000

New lots permitted in the area, flooding the market with new construction competition

Neighborhood Price Ranges

Belterra

$450K–$700K

Headwaters

$500K–$900K

Caliterra

$450K–$650K

Downtown Dripping Springs

$400K–$700K

Rim Rock

$600K–$1.5M+

Approximate ranges based on 2026 listings; confirm current pricing with a local agent.


78620 Price Reduction Surge

A 24-Point Jump in One Year

The surge in price reductions in 78620 is one of the most dramatic shifts in the Austin metro. What's driving it?

~8,000 New Lots Permitted

A flood of new construction inventory is giving buyers alternatives at every price point

94-Day Average to Pending

Homes are sitting significantly longer, forcing sellers to revisit their pricing strategy

92% Sale-to-List Ratio

Sellers are routinely accepting well under asking — the market is repricing in real time

Property Taxes by County: Where Your Bill Really Comes From

The school district is the largest line on almost every bill in the Austin area. Below are combined county + city + school district rates, tax year 2025 adopted, per $100 of assessed value, before exemptions.

Source: 2025 adopted rates from Travis County, Williamson County and Hays CAD; Neuhaus Realty Group analysis.

MUDs by County: The Hidden Line on Your Tax Bill

A MUD (Municipal Utility District) is a separate tax stacked on top of county, city and school taxes to pay for water, sewer, drainage and roads. Rates typically run $0.25–$1.50 per $100 — roughly $1,250–$7,500 a year on a $500K home. New districts charge the most; rates step down as bonds retire.

Travis County

Lakeway MUD — $0.0531

Lake Pointe MUD — $0.1347

Senna Hills MUD — $0.2597

Travis Co. MUD #12 — $0.4350

Travis Co. MUD #24 — $0.9500

Lazy Nine MUD #1A — $1.0000

Williamson County

Fern Bluff MUD — $0.1800

Brushy Creek MUD — $0.3868

Williamson Co. MUD 19 (Santa Rita Ranch) — $0.8500

Leander MUD #1 — $1.0000

Hays County

Buda MUD #1 — $0.7500

Sunfield MUD #1 — $0.8700

Headwaters MUD (Dripping Springs) — $0.9000

Anthem MUD — $1.0000

Source: 2025 adopted district rates; Neuhaus Realty Group and Echelon Property Group analysis. MUD tax is separate from the city/county/school rates on the previous slide.

For Sellers: Pricing Strategy Is Everything

In today's market — especially in 78620 — overpricing by even 5% can mean months of sitting and multiple reductions. A home priced right from day one is dramatically outperforming homes that "test the market high."

1

Overpriced at Launch

Home sits 60–90+ days, accumulates "days on market" stigma, buyers assume something is wrong

2

First Price Reduction

Typically 30–45 days in — but the damage to buyer perception is already done

3

Second Reduction

Now below where a strategic day-one price would have been — and with less negotiating power

4

Priced Right from Day One

Generates early momentum, competitive interest, and often closes closer to list price

For Buyers: Your Strongest Window in Years

This is one of the most favorable negotiating environments Austin has seen in years. Concessions, repair credits, and rate buydowns are all back on the table — and buyers who know how to use them are winning big.

Rate Buydowns

Sellers and builders alike are offering mortgage rate buydowns — ask for them in every negotiation. Even 0.5% can save tens of thousands over the life of a loan.

Repair Credits

Inspection findings are back to being negotiating tools. Buyers are successfully requesting credits rather than repairs — giving them control over how money is spent.

New vs. Resale Analysis

In 78620 specifically, comparing new construction incentive packages against resale pricing can reveal real value. Don't buy resale without running the comparison.

Micro-Market Awareness

Every street is telling a different story. A home two zip codes over may be priced very differently — local expertise matters more than ever right now.

For Investors: Watch the Spread

Where the Opportunities Are Hiding

The gap between expanding new construction activity and still-softening resale activity is where savvy investors are finding their edge in 2026.

Motivated Resale Sellers

With 63% of 78620 listings having taken price cuts and a 92% sale-to-list ratio, below-ask acquisitions are achievable

Long-Term Land Value

~8,000 new lots signals long-term infrastructure investment in the area — a positive signal for land appreciation

Rental Demand Resilience

As ownership becomes more complex, rental demand in quality Hill Country communities remains strong

Let's Talk About Your Specific Street

Every micro-market is telling a different story right now. The headlines give you the broad strokes — but your street, your zip code, your property type may be operating under completely different conditions.

Thinking About Selling?

Pricing strategy is the single biggest lever you have. Let's build a data-driven pricing plan specific to your neighborhood — not just the metro average.

Ready to Buy?

You have more leverage than you've had in years. Let's map out a negotiation strategy that captures concessions, credits, and rate buydowns on your behalf.

Exploring Investment?

The spread between new construction and resale is creating real opportunity. Let's identify where the value gaps are in your target area before they close.